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![Pressure Building]()
20 Nov, 2014Pressure Building
ÂYes, we all know the European economy is not growing: stagnant, sclerotic, etc. But this fact is not a crisis. Its a concern, a problem, a challenge, but not a crisis.It is hard to get ...
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![Spreads]()
18 Nov, 2014Spreads
An interesting graphic from Ken Leech of Western Asset showing that spreads in Bondland this year are pretty much unchanged from the start of the year. This, despite the rally in US equities and solid ...
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![Money Matters]()
17 Nov, 2014Money Matters
When the Fed embarked on Quantitative Easing (QE), many prominent economists warned this would lead to hyperinflation (or, at least, an wanted surge in inflation). Didn't happen. With QE ended, many ...
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![Selected Fun Facts]()
14 Nov, 2014Selected Fun Facts
Some fun facts about this year (courtesy Michael Hartnett of Merrill Lynch):US equities (+14%) are ahead of European equities (-6%) by the widest margin since 1976.US large cap is beating US small cap ...
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13 Nov, 2014"Special"?
The following item caught my eye on Bloomberg:Los Angeles City Employees' Retirement System is scheduled to discuss a staff report requested at a prior meeting on the pension's specialized private ...
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![Logistics]()
11 Nov, 2014Logistics
Not enough attention is being paid to the work slowdown/stoppage going on at West Coast ports.The last time there was a disruption was in 2002, and it ended 10 days later only after a presidential ...
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![How The Mighty Fall]()
11 Nov, 2014How The Mighty Fall
Between March 2000 and October 2002, the NASDAQ Index fell 75%, from over 5,000 to under 1,300. Of course, valuations were beyond silly at the peak, and I confess, following the collapse, I thought my ...
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![Happy Singles Day!]()
11 Nov, 2014Happy Singles Day!
11 November is celebrated in the US as Veteran's Day and throughout Europe as Armistice Day, marking the armistice ending the First World War in 1918. Government agencies and banks are closed for the ...
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![US Manufacturing]()
4 Nov, 2014US Manufacturing
Wow. The good people at the Institute for Supply Management survey American manufacturers every month and ask, "how's business?" They then create a diffusion index based on those responses: a scale ...
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![PIMCO PAID BILLIONAIRE GROSS $290 MILLION BONUS IN 2013]()
4 Nov, 2014PIMCO PAID BILLIONAIRE GROSS $290 MILLION BONUS IN 2013
"In the mutual fund world it's no doubt on the very high side," said Michael Rosen, chief investment officer at Angeles Investment Advisors. "This is a company with $2 trillion - that's an awful lot of money & that's an awful lot of money in fees".
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![It's a Big World]()
3 Nov, 2014It's a Big World
With apologies to Walt Disney, the global economy is getting, well, more global, and, intuitively, companies' sensitivities to global macro factors increase in proportion to their global ...
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![QE Impact?]()
31 Oct, 2014QE Impact?
QE3 (the policy, not a new Cunard ship) was launched 2 years ago and ended this week. The expanded it balance sheet by $1.6 trillion, or 62%.Economists (and other, smarter people) will debate the ...
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![DOUBLE LEVERAGE?]()
29 Oct, 2014DOUBLE LEVERAGE?
Oil prices are down about $30 from their highs; great news for consumers and the big oil importers (China, Korea, India). Not so good news for the big producers (Saudi, Russia, Venezuela).Oil ...
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![BRASIL]()
28 Oct, 2014BRASIL
A hundred years ago, I studied international relations in school (the Sykes-Picot Treaty was a hotly-debated current topic among us). For the few of us focused on the Third World (now given the more ...
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![The Present is the Future (at least in bond land)]()
27 Oct, 2014The Present is the Future (at least in bond land)
In our long-term assumptions, we generally assume that the total return in fixed income is pretty close to its starting yield. Thats because a bonds total return is a function of two variables: yield ...
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![BATTLE FOR SHARE OF PIMCO SPOILS IS GETTING HOTTER]()
27 Oct, 2014BATTLE FOR SHARE OF PIMCO SPOILS IS GETTING HOTTER
Mr. Rosen said the new multiperson investment team that replaced Mr. Gross on the fund might improve its recent performance, but that might not be enough to retain investors. "It may be better, but it is not what investors signed up for..."
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![Im Not Dead!]()
24 Oct, 2014Im Not Dead!
A great line from a great Monty Python movie, and another crisp cover from The Economist: ...
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![Kids!]()
23 Oct, 2014Kids!
On a totally non-market subject, more young adults are living with their parents, and heres the graph to prove it (courtesy of Hugo Scott-Gall of Goldman Sachs). Top line is US, bottom line is UK. I ...
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![Europe Falling]()
22 Oct, 2014Europe Falling
Yes, pessimism over Europes prospects is high, and valuations in Europe are relatively low. But both for good reasons.Below is another data point on how the markets are reflecting the divergence in ...
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![Reversal]()
21 Oct, 2014Reversal
Im interpreting the spike down last week and the strong rebound in the past few days as bullish. See the chart below from Fridays close (courtesy of our friends at Merrill).We have held our positions ...
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![Shades of 2007?]()
17 Oct, 2014Shades of 2007?
Nice graphic in today's FT showing the spike in vol and sell-off in risk (Greek bond yields jumped from 5.5% to 9% in the past few days).I still think this is mostly noise, a normal, and overdue, ...
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![Old Age]()
16 Oct, 2014Old Age
Its been 3 years since US equities have corrected more than 10%. But theres no law about how long rallies can last without a correction.In any event, as diversified, well-positioned investors (as, of ...
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![Consider]()
16 Oct, 2014Consider
Consider:Volatility spiked to its highest level in over 2 years.Global equities are in negative territory this year, led by Europes 10% decline.US 10-year Treasury yields fell more than 30 basis ...
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![Knowns and Unknowns]()
16 Oct, 2014Knowns and Unknowns
Until last month, 2014 was a year of investor complacency. Recent market volatility has shaken off the prevailing calm with a healthy re-examination of things that can go wrong for the economy. Forrninvestors, a long-term perspective is critical.
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